Entering into Charlottesville for a critical early game, NC State football fell flat on its face in a 34-8 loss to Virginia. I made the trip to Scott Stadium to see what was in store for the Pack in this season and watched a team that was woefully unprepared and outmatched. There’s plenty of takeaways from the Wolfpack’s season opener and none of them are pretty.
Identity Crisis
NC State doesn’t have an identity. After most games you can find at least a few positives even in a loss, but not this game. The only real positive for the Pack is that punter Jackson Waller looks to be the real deal. With all due respect to special teams, if a punter is the only positive in a game then that performance is undeniably a collective team failure.
Offensively, the Wolfpack failed to throw for 100 yards and failed to rush for 100 yards. The Pack turned it over more than it scored. Seven different drives ended in punts. Meanwhile on defense, Virginia had its way in both the passing and running game. While the Cavaliers leaned on the rushing attack to score, they were highly effective when they chose to pass as QB Beau Pribula completed 9 of 11 passes including a pair of touchdowns. With nothing to build off of and no signs of life, it’s safe to say that the Wolfpack is already suffering an identity crisis.
CJ Bailey Hits a Career Low
NC State entered the year as a worse team on paper compared to last season. The hope is Raleigh was that quarterback CJ Bailey would continue to improve enough to offset the losses around him and carry this roster. Against Virginia though, Bailey turned in his worst career performance. Bailey finished just 12 of 23 through the air for 84 yards, marking career lows as a starter in passing yards and completions.
The biggest issue for Bailey in this one appeared to be mental. Bailey often locked onto one receiver at the start of the play. If that receiver was covered or the pass rush got through before that receiver could get open, Bailey panicked time and time again.
Run Defense is a Dumpster Fire
Virginia entered the game with a clear plan: run the ball down NC State’s throat. The Wolfpack failed to show any ability to stop UVA from executing that plan, allowing 258 yards on 57 carries. That second number, 57 rushing attempts, is a glaring problem. Teams never do the same thing 57 times in a game unless there is no doubt that a defence won’t stop it.
Virginia QB Beau Pribula torched the Wolfpack with 110 rushing yards on 15 carries. It was no secret that Pribula’s biggest strength is his legs, yet the Pack never figured out how to stop the QB run game. Always a step slow to react, the Wolfpack routinely allowed Virginia to get ahead of the chains with QB draw plays. Credit is certainly due for the Cavaliers’ offensive line, but the Wolfpack linebackers are also to blame for whiffing on multiple tackles. Virginia especially targeted edge rusher Harvey Dyson and linebacker AJ Richardson, who appeared unplayable whenever Pribula took off and ran.
Zero Playmakers Emerge
NC State’s leading receiver was tight end Vander Ploog, who finished with 2 receptions for 25 yards. You read that right, the Wolfpack failed to get even 30 yards for any individual player. NC State has a serious problem with separation, as most of the receiving core failed to get any space. Bailey could have been more accurate and offensive coordinator Kurt Roper could have run more creative concepts to manufacture production, but ultimately those things would have only helped marginally if receivers can’t separate.
NC State’s biggest additions in the receiving core this offseason included Buffalo transfer Victor Snow and Miami transfer Jojo Trader. The duo combined for just three catches and 24 yards. That simply cannot happen. NC State needs its playmakers to actually be playmakers, otherwise the Wolfpack offense will remain anemic all season.
In the run game, NC State also lacked playmakers. Running back Duke Scott impressed during the offseason and earned the starting job with the expectation of being a work horse back. However, with the spotlight on him, Scott managed just 20 yards on 7 carries. Of course the offensive line will need to give Scott more space to operate, but part of Scott’s role is breaking tackles as a power back.
Failure to Adjust
The best coaches find ways to adjust when their initial plan fails. However, neither of NC State’s coordinators adjusted to Virginia and the result was a total collapse by the third quarter.
Offensive coordinator Kurt Roper remained stubborn with his game plan, looking to run a slow, methodical offense. However, with Virginia draining the clock quickly and the deficit rising in the second half, the Wolfpack needed to find a way to stop the bleeding. An up tempo, no huddle adjustment could have caught the Cavaliers off guard and allowed the Pack to claw back into striking distance. Instead, NC State insisted on running on early downs, killing clock, and puzzlingly refusing to attack the middle of the field.
Defensively, NC State had no answer for Virginia’s run game. The Wolfpack eventually tried rotating in different players up front to get fresh bodies in the game. However, the playcalling remained similar and notably defensive coordinator DJ Eliot refused to load the box to try to stop the run. Loading the box is always risky with the threat of the offense throwing over the top, but I’d argue it’s just as risky to hand the opposition a free five plus yards per run.
The Dave Doeren Cycle remains Inevitable
Stop me if you’ve seen this movie before: NC State football enters a season with hype and dark horse ACC expectations, crumbles on the national spotlight, fan morale sinks, before finding its way late and finishing the year with seven to nine wins. We just saw NC State no show on ESPN in arguably its most important game of the year. This likely isn’t rock bottom for the Wolfpack with tough games against Vanderbilt and Louisville looming in the next month. Early losses will pile up because this team isn’t filled with stars and lacks depth. They’ll likely find an identity eventually, because Doeren’s teams almost always do.
You never want to overreact to one game. The sky isn’t falling, NC State can still put together a respectable season and win around eight games especially when the schedule softens up by mid October. To get there though, things have to change. Bailey will have to find a way to return to his 2025 self. Multiple players on defense will have to step up and be difference makers. Somebody on offense has to step up to be a go-to playmaker for Bailey to lean on. The season isn’t lost, but it’s on the rocks and will take several things breaking NC State’s way for the Wolfpack to be anything more than a mediocre ACC team.