When Kon Knueppel was selected by the Charlotte Hornets with the fourth pick in the 2025 NBA Draft, most viewed the pick as a safe, reliable selection. Knueppel was viewed as a high-level play finisher and connective piece coming out of Duke, but was deemed to have a lower ceiling by many due to concerns about his vertical mobility and lack of on-ball creation.
Eight months later, Knueppel is averaging 19.4 points, 5.4 rebounds, and 3.5 assists with 49/44/89 shooting splits on a team that’s 18-9 since the start of the new year. Not only is he producing on a team that’s winning basketball games, but he’s also a key reason as to why the Hornets are winning.
In the last 12 games in particular, Knueppel has taken things to another level, averaging 22.8 points on 51% from three.
Naturally, that means Knueppel finds himself in the heat of the Rookie of the Year race.
As all of this has been going on, I’ve had one question in the back of my mind:
What exactly is Kon Knueppel’s ceiling?
If this is the starting point, I really struggle to see what the ceiling could be without getting irrational. Especially given my pre-conceived notion of Knueppel’s ceiling throughout the draft process: low ceiling, high floor player.
And honestly, writing about questions like these is why I started SportCLT.
This was my draft night take:
You can really hear my muted enthusiasm - I was all in on Tre Johnson with the #4 overall pick (and he will still be good).
For Knueppel, part of my struggles to evaluate his ceiling come from him stylistically being different than any player I can remember.
Obviously, Knueppel is an elite-level shooter. But it’s not like he’s a “zero” handling the ball, scoring inside, or defending either. He was never “just” a shooter.
I never liked the obligatory Klay Thompson comparisons because of that - the only similarities those players share are a willingness to move off-ball and, of course, the shooting.
I don’t necessarily think Knueppel’s ceiling is just “peak Klay Thompson” - even if they do share some similarities. Kneuppel is averaging more assists and more rebounds than Thompson’s career bests (2.9 for assists, 4.1 for rebounds). He’s just a much more versatile offensive player than Thompson was (but also a much worse defender than the All-Defender Thompson was either).
Other modern players I’ve seen compared to Knueppel include: Ray Allen, Devin Booker, Khris Middleton, and, of course: Gordon Hayward, TJ McConnell and Joe Ingles.
My favorite historical comparison, though, is Paul Pierce. Look at their rookie year similarities:
And while Knueppel and Pierce are similar in their volume statistics and overall efficiency throughout their rookie seasons, their shot diets are still wildly different (with Knueppel taking most of his shots from the 3-point line while Pierce was much more comfortable inside the arc).
I’ll put it as simple as this: There is no one-to-one comparison for Knueppel’s game, which is why I (as well as many others) have such a hard time figuring out what his ceiling could be.
And so because of that reality, we’re going to have to do some projecting.
Projecting Kon Knueppel’s Ceiling
Let’s start with the obvious: If Kon Knueppel is the exact player he is today for the next 7-10 years, then he will have been a home run of a draft selection by the Hornets front office.
But it’s only because of the promise that he’s showing currently that there is a belief that he can get even better. And in projecting his ceiling, two main thoughts come to mind.
The main belief on Kon Knueppel’s pre-draft profile was that his ceiling was somewhat capped. And it’s a fair thought. Most players in the “not-super-athletic-40%-3-point-shooter” archetype don’t have other skills that keep them on the floor.
I also think Knueppel has shown enough in other areas of his game for that not to be the case. Yeah, Knueppel has otherworldly efficiency this season, but there’s a lot that he can still improve on.
On-Ball Self Creation
I think the area of Kon Knueppel’s game that could improve the “most” is his self-creation. As of February 26th, 93% of Kon’s 3-point FGs have been assisted. 58% of his 2P FGs have been assisted.
LaMelo Ball, by comparison, is assisted on 65% of his 3P FGs and 21% of his 2P FGs. For Brandon Miller, those figures are 83% on 3P FGs and 46% on 2P FGs.
So while Knueppel is having this amazing season from an efficiency standpoint, he is still highly reliant on his teammates to generate open looks for him.
That’s not to say that he’s incapable of growing as an on-ball creator - he’s simply taken advantage of the looks given to him.
There are many flashes of him putting the ball on the floor and finding a shot:
And what’s so promising here is Kon Knueppel’s processing ability. He’s arguably the best overall decision-maker on the Hornets roster right now. Knueppel almost never takes a bad shot. If more consistent on-ball creation does eventually come, it’s probably not at the expense of that level of decision-making (although his splits do probably decrease in that event).
In some of these flashes, you’re able to see Knueppel manipulate defenders with his strength and eyes. He can get someone in the air before maneuvering his shot around them; he can create space off of two feet.
All of these traits already give him a foundation to grow on the ball.
Kon’s ball-handling isn’t something that can’t improve either. While it’s not the tightest handle, it’s also not inconceivable that it grows to become one of his better traits. He consistently brings the ball up the court for the Hornets, often initiating the offense.
Playmaking
One could describe Kon Knueppel’s current playmaking skillset as “connective tissue.” He’s an elite decision-maker and someone who constantly keeps the ball moving.
It’s a lot of plays like this: Kon Knueppel finds open space in the defense, attacks it, feels Oubre help too much, and hits the open shooter. There are examples of him doing this every single game.
It’s really hard to find possessions where Kon Knueppel is a pick-and-roll ball-handler. But according to NBA.com’s advanced analytics, Knueppel is in the 85th percentile as a pick-and-roll ball-handler on 2.8 possessions per game (156 total possessions).
Again, I don’t think that’s something that scales with volume, but he’s responsible for more points per possession in that role than any other Hornets player.
Defense
I think Kon Knueppel is strong enough not to be consistently targeted on defense. He’s had games that he’s targeted, and he’s had games where he performed quite well on the defensive end.
But I don’t ever think Kon Knueppel will be viewed as the “weak link” on this particular Hornets team.
There are real instances when his strength is a legitimate factor in shutting off drives from guards and wings.
There are also many possessions where Kon’s defense is a legitimate issue. It’s easier for him to get shaken by shifter guards:
I think the answer defensively lies somewhere in between. Knueppel probably is close to the defender he will be throughout his career: not someone that will be targeted, but also not someone that will generate consistent turnovers or stick to opposing teams’ best players.
There is a lot of room to grow.
I don’t think Kon Knueppel is close to what he can be at his peak. There is plenty of room to grow into being an All-NBA caliber player, particularly if his handle and on-ball creation see work in the future years. Typically, that’s an area that young players are more prone to develop into.
I’m not saying Knueppel is necessarily destined to become a top-15 player, but I do think he is on an All-Star trajectory as things stand. It’s incredibly difficult to bet against a player who is this good as a rookie.
And even if Knueppel doesn’t improve much? He’s still, at this point, probably a top-50 player in the NBA. He’s worth a whole lot as it stands.
The original aim of this piece was to predict what Kon Knueppel’s “ceiling” was, and I still don’t feel comfortable doing that. I genuinely have no idea how good he can become. I don’t want to put a limit on it, either.
Increasingly often, we’ve seen players with “low ceiling” tags attached (at least compared to most players selected in their draft range) blow by those expectations. Luka Doncic, Franz Wagner, Derrick White, and Jalen Brunson were all billed as having comparatively low ceilings.
Hell, even Hornets franchise GOAT Kemba Walker was perceived as having a low ceiling.
With all of that said: