The Charlotte Hornets have a 2.4% chance of jumping to the top-4 picks in the NBA Draft Lottery on Sunday.
It’s not super likely, but plenty of things have happened with worse odds. It’s like an 85% free throw shooter missing both shots at the line.
It probably won’t happen, but it could, and it’s fun to think about.
The Draft Lottery will take place on Sunday at 3 PM ET on ABC. SportCLT will be reacting live on Twitter and YouTube.
Some loose thoughts on the top prospects.
And because of the looming inevitability of disappointment, I want to talk about the idea of Charlotte moving into the top-4 picks, because I won’t be able to seriously talk about it in about two days.
If the unlikely does actually happen, it will make the next two months infinitely more interesting from a team-building perspective. You’d be adding what most consider to be a franchise-altering player to a core that already has three major building blocks.
I’m not going to sit here and say that all four of AJ Dybantsa, Cam Boozer, Darryn Peterson, and Caleb Wilson are going to be All-NBA caliber players, but there is a reason a third of the league tanked their season(s) just for a slim chance at one of them.
I don’t think any of those four players are Victor Wembanyama-level prospects. I don’t even think they are Cooper Flagg-level prospects. I do, however, think they all would be more-than-worthy first overall selections if the other three didn’t exist. Not all draft classes are created equal, and this year is a testament to that.
Even putting the level of talent at stake to the side, what makes this lottery much more interesting is that the order of players taken could be entirely determined by who wins the lottery.
Last year, for instance, Cooper Flagg was always going to be the first pick. Dylan Harper was always going to be the second pick. This year, a case can be made for any four of Dybantsa, Peterson, Wilson, or Boozer in any of the top-4 slots. And because of that razor-thin margin, I think this year is more likely to have one of the top picks moved - potentially in a Markelle Fultz/Jayson Tatum-like trade.
Who would be the most fun player of the bunch in Charlotte, though?
Well, if I’m going off of pure basketball aesthetics, I think Caleb Wilson would be incredibly fun in purple and teal. He provides a skill set that the Hornets desperately need in the front court (someone who can put pressure on the rim and consistently score inside), and can serve as the long-term power forward, a spot that most Hornets fans are antsy to fix this summer.
I’m not sure the Hornets would be as high on him as someone like Cam Boozer, though, who is one of the most productive forwards we’ve ever seen at the college level. I tend to think Boozer’s overall productivity, playmaking, and 3-point shooting would give him the edge for a Charlotte braintrust that clearly values those characteristics. In fact, I’d go as far to say it wouldn’t shock me if the Hornets took Boozer first overall in the 0.5% chance they get the first overall pick.
What’s the best outcome if the Hornets DON’T win the lottery?
The best outcome for Charlotte (assuming they don’t jump in the lottery themselves), would be for the worst Western Conference teams to earn the top-4 picks - specifically the Sacramento Kings and Memphis Grizzlies.
Kings fans really deserve it, man.
Charlotte ideally avoids the Dallas Mavericks jumping in the order (since they want the Mavs to be as bad as possible for 2027).
The Hornets are also hoping that if an Eastern Conference team does earn a top-4 pick in the lottery, it’s not one of the Hawks, Heat, or Wizards. Those teams adding an elite talent would make the divisional schedule much more difficult on a yearly basis.
Finally - the cherry on top would be for the team who gets the number four pick to be completely settled at both power forward and point guard - increasing the likelihood of that team listening to trade offers for the pick. Only one team really comes to mind here - the Utah Jazz.
I think the Jazz would still take Caleb Wilson in this scenario, but the pipe dream for a Hornets trade into the top-4 wouldn’t be completely, totally, dead. It would only be incredibly unlikely, at that point.
My ideal top-4 (assuming I can’t pick the Hornets)?
Sacramento Kings
Memphis Grizzlies
Brooklyn Nets
Utah Jazz
Hornets Draft Lottery History
The Hornets have been in each of the last 10 lotteries. Here are the results for each one.
2017: 11th → 11th (Malik Monk)
2018: 11th → 11th (traded down for Miles Bridges)
2019: 12th → 12th (PJ Washington)
2020: 8th → 3rd (LaMelo Ball)
2021: 11th → 11th (James Bouknight)
2022: 13th → 13th (Traded for a 2023 first that became Nick Smith)
2023: 4th → 2nd (Brandon Miller)
2024: 3rd → 6th (Tidjane Salaun)
2025: 3rd → 4th (Kon Knueppel)
Overall, the Hornets have gotten pretty lucky. They’ve netted a total of three draft spots over the past ten years.
This might be the last “normal” lottery we get.
The NBA appears to be moving towards the 3-2-1 lottery proposal for 2027 through 2029 (when a new CBA will be finalized). I don’t think people have realized just how wacky the balls could bounce under that system.
A refresher, on what that lottery will look like:
I ran one simulation using the lottery machine I created (you can run your own simulations here), and this was the result:
In this single simulation:
The three worst teams in the NBA pick between 9 and 12.
Miami (13th worst team in the NBA) wins the lottery.
And somehow, this feels like one of the more tame simulations. In most cases, at least one bottom-3 team is picking 12th. That feels insignificant now, but it will feel much more significant in about 12 months.
It is a temporary measure (for now), and it feels inevitable that the long-term viability of this lottery system will be determined by how the 2027, 2028, and 2029 lotteries go - despite having as much variance as possible.
For the Hornets specifically, this is probably a favorable change. They won’t be in the bottom barrel of teams for the next years (unless something goes truly wrong), and if they are still in the lottery, there’s a chance Charlotte could win (or jump in) the lottery anyways.
And that’s not including that the Hornets own several potential lottery draft picks over the next two seasons.