Week 0 has arrived, which means it’s time to finally preview games. This week, both North Carolina and NC State take the field to begin the 2026 season. The Tar Heels kickoff in Dublin against TCU at noon on ESPN, while the Wolfpack travels to Virginia for a 3:30 kickoff also on ESPN.
UNC vs TCU
The Tar Heels and the Horned Frogs opened last season in Chapel Hill, a game that was as disastrous as you could draw up for Bill Belichick’s college debut. The good news for Carolina is that the 2025 roster is largely gone. The bad news is the 2026 roster was rebuilt with freshmen and several lower level transfers. TCU also saw significant turnover since that game, notably replacing quarterback Josh Hoover and offensive coordinator Kendal Briles.
Unlike the fast, spread offensive that Briles ran at TCU last season, the Horned Frogs will likely run a more pro style system with new OC Gordon Sammis, who led UConn’s offense last year. TCU is also breaking in a new QB, Harvard transfer Jayden Craig. While decent at the FCS level, I have concerns about Craig’s ability to be a star against much better competition. Getting pressure on Craig will be critical as he’s not a dynamic threat to run. If UNC can get Melkart Abou-Jaoude into the backfield it could spell trouble for the Horned Frogs. Furthermore, if Leroy Jackson can continue stuffing the run from the interior, there’s real potential for TCU to struggle to move the ball.
Where I’m concerned for Carolina in this matchup is when the Tar Heel offense takes the field. Wisconsin transfer Billy Edwards Jr. won the quarterback competition this offseason, giving Carolina an experienced signal caller. While a decent enough game manager, Edwards isn’t the type of player I’d expect to elevate the rest of the offense. Last year, the Tar Heels failed to give QB Gio Lopez much support outside of receiver Jordan Shipp. While Shipp is back, the rest of the playmakers surrounding Shipp are unproven at best. Tight end Jelani Thurman is Carolina’s best shot at a breakout playmaker and will have to play well for the Heels to score enough in this one.
New offensive coordinator Bobby Petrino has stressed the importance of establishing the run, another key aspect of the matchup. Ben Hall and Demon June have shown flashes as power backs, but will they be enough to control the game against TCU? With six games surrendering 130 or more rushing yards last season, the Horned Frogs biggest defensive weakness could be exploited by Petrino.
Weather conditions are expected to feature heavy rain, so I’d watch for both teams to try to establish the run early. Whichever side can do that will likely emerge victorious. Given the complete lack of continuity for Carolina, I project the Horned Frogs to come out on top, albeit by a much slimmer margin than last year.
Prediction: TCU wins 20-17
NC State at Virginia
Originally scheduled to meet in Brazil, the Pack and the Cavaliers matchup was moved last minute this summer to Charlottesville. Heading into the first sellout at Scott Stadium since 2008, NC State will face one of its toughest tests to open the season.
After winning a program record 11 games last season, Virginia retained much of its roster. However, the Cavaliers are breaking in a new QB, Missouri transfer Beau Pribula. Replacing Chandler Morris, Pribula is almost assuredly a step down. Much of Virginia’s success last year can be credited to Morris ability to create gains from broken plays. That formula won’t work this year as Pribula often panics when pressured, leading to turnovers and unnecessary sacks.
The question of if NC State can stop UVA is if the Pack can actually generate pressure against UVA. At the jack position, NC State will depend on Harvey Dyson III to lead the charge. While I fully expect Dyson to make an impact, I’m skeptical if the Wolfpack can generate enough pressure elsewhere given the unproven nature of the defensive line. Notably, Virginia returns a wealth of experience with all five projected starters being fifth through seventh year starters. Given UVA’s experience, they’ll likely have an edge on the line of scrimmage.
Another key matchup is the Virginia rushing attack against the Pack’s defense. NC State improved the linebacker room, which will be led by Popo Aguirre Jr and AJ Richardson. Both linebackers are best at stuffing the run and will be critical in stopping Cavalier running back Peyton Lewis. Transferring from Tennessee, Lewis largely saw action as a backup with the Vols. I project the Wolfpack to have an advantage here and potentially for Virginia to throw more than they’d like to.
Offensively, the Wolfpack will have to build chemistry quickly. With NC State’s top 5 receiving targets all gone, quarterback CJ Bailey faces a talented defense and is armed with several question marks. Also concerning is that Bailey played significantly worse on the road last season with eight of his nine interceptions coming away from home. Bailey will need to elevate his play and minimize turnovers for the Pack to keep pace with Virginia.
Where NC State could have an edge is the running game. While running back Duke Scott primarily served as a backup last season, he was spectacular in his two starts last season. Virginia’s star linebacker, Kam Robinson remains questionable to play in the opener. If Robinson is out or even just playing on a limited basis, there’ll be a big opening for Scott to take advantage of.
Overall, I expect both teams to start slow before picking things up in the second half. The Pack will likely lean on Scott to keep the chains moving, while Virginia will depend on its line to allow Pribula enough time to pick apart the Wolfpack’s secondary. This one feels like a tossup, but given home field advantage and more experience in the trenches, Virginia would be my pick to win.
Prediction: Virginia wins 34-27