Exploring Coby White's Pending Free Agency
How much money will Coby White sign for in free agency?
Recently, there has been some buzz regarding the Charlotte Hornets potentially re-signing guard Coby White. On June 30th, he will be able to agree to terms with teams as an unrestricted free agent, and hence various media outlets have discussed White’s value.
Sam Vecenie was surprisingly quite low on Coby, stating on his Game Theory podcast how he would feel “okay letting him walk if the number is over the Taxpayer MLE (mid-level exception” ($15 million annually). ESPN’s Bobby Marks differed from Vecenie’s opinion, projecting him as the fourth-most valuable unrestricted free agent, and could garner a 3-year, $54 million contract.
So let’s see what I can make of the Coby White contract, from a Hornets fan’s point of view.
I want to begin by stressing the importance of White to this current Hornets roster construction.
Since LaMelo Ball was drafted to Charlotte back in 2020, the team has been lacking a solid second option who can run the offense during the minutes he’s off the floor. At the trade deadline they acquired a player in Coby White who does just that and much more.
During his 21 games in Charlotte, White averaged 16 points and three assists, while attempting 5.2 threes per game on 39.1% from beyond the arc. He was a steady and secure scorer at all three levels off the bench who can play with (or without) LaMelo Ball.
And of course, there was the play-in game vs Miami, where he hit one of the biggest shots in Hornets history to keep the team alive and send the game to overtime, where Charlotte would eventually win.
The Hornets have struggled in the clutch at times, and they may have found a guy in White that they can trust in closing minutes. Coby White, in his Hornets role, could become a 6th Man of the Year candidate.
The ball appears to be fully in the Hornets’ court to lock in Coby White to a long-term deal, but it likely takes more than Vecenie’s $15M/year valuation to get it done.
So what could the front office consider to be his ceiling where he becomes too costly?
Coby just completed his 7th season in the league, meaning he qualifies as a veteran, where, in theory, he could eat up to 30% of the cap (projected $49.5m for 2026-27).
The Hornets also retained his full “bird rights” from Chicago, something Jeff Peterson was vocally excited about upon the acquisition.
Having those bird rights means the Hornets can go over the salary cap to re-sign Coby White while not having to use the non-taxpayer mid-level exception.
However, the way I see it, the front office would ideally like to re-sign Coby White and utilise their MLE of $15m without going over the tax threshold or first apron to maintain the flexibility that Jeff Peterson preaches about.
Understanding this helps to calculate rather precisely what his ceiling salary would be.
The salary cap is projected at $165M for 2026-27, and the tax threshold is calculated as 121.5% of the league’s salary cap, so for the 2026-27 projection, the tax threshold will be roughly $200.5M, and the first apron $209M.
The Hornets active cap hit going into free agency sits at $148.4M. This gives Charlotte just over $50M to work with before being threatened with the luxury tax.
Subtract the MLE from this, it becomes $35M/year as the ceiling for Coby White.
The front office would also likely subtract another $15M and stow it away for some wiggle room (think draft picks, trades, moves along the margins), meaning that Charlotte is left with roughly $20M/year to offer Coby.
We’ll use that $20M projection as the “ceiling” for his base 2026 salary, with maybe some wiggle room for them to potentially go higher should it be necessary (particularly if he has other suitors in free agency).
Calculating how low the Hornets could offer is more of a trivial matter, as there are many variables in place. Primarily among these are other teams who may be interested.
As things stand, 24 other teams could offer White the full $15M/year MLE should they choose to. He is definitely worth that to some teams, so I think this sets a hard floor at that MLE number. But can any of these teams offer above that total to further compete with Charlotte?
Well, yes, but it is circumstantial. Only Brooklyn, Chicago, Dallas, Detroit, Memphis, Utah, and the Lakers can free up room under the cap to sign Coby for more than the $15M MLE.
Of these, I think we can waive off some of these teams that will prioritize re-signing current talent: Detroit with Jalen Duren, Los Angeles with Austin Reaves (and/or LeBron James), and Utah with Walker Kessler. Dallas can also be cleared here as their active salary sits at $148.9M, allowing them roughly $16M to acquire Coby, which is barely above the MLE.
The leaves just Brooklyn, Memphis, and the wildcard of Chicago. So what could they each theoretically offer Coby?
Brooklyn is pretty much a blank slate. Coby White would come in and immediately be a starter in the backcourt alongside Egor Demin and whoever the Nets select with the 6th pick in the draft (very likely to be another guard).
The Nets are only committed to paying $123M in salary, leaving them with $42M to work with this off-season. I could see them willing to offer Coby something in the $20-25 million ballpark, giving them room to push for another player of Coby’s level with their remaining space.
The Memphis Grizzlies are a lot like Brooklyn here. With just $142.7M on their books, they could offer Coby the remainder of their cap space, roughly $22M. The future of Ja Morant is uncertain, and Coby would provide either cover for him, or more likely, he could be a replacement to start as the new point guard should Morant be traded for front court or wing players.
That leaves us with the wildcard in the situation, the Chicago Bulls - Coby’s old home.
For this off-season, they have the lowest active salary in the league at just $95.4M, leaving them a whopping $69.1 million until they hit the $165 million salary cap. Whilst it would seem Coby and the Bulls have separated for good, we cannot ignore the fact that they have plenty of room to sign him should they prefer him to his current alternatives in Anfernee Simons and Collin Sexton, as unlikely as it sounds.
They could choose to make a run for him over re-signing either of them this off-season, and they could offer him a significant contract of say $25M. There is a new decision maker in town; maybe Bryson Graham wants Coby back.
Whilst the exact total is hard to pin down per team and situation, the recurring theme among the three is that they could all offer above what we identified as Charlotte’s ceiling of $20M.
However, Charlotte does have perks that should make them a more attractive spot for Coby.
Since the Hornets would be utilizing bird rights to sign White, they can offer him more incremental growth. Under bird rights, his salary can increase at 8% per year, opposed to the league default 5%. This means that if both Charlotte and another team offer him a contract starting at $20M, Charlotte’s long-term deal will net him more money.
If Charlotte offered him a 4-year deal starting at $20M with 8% raises, White would earn $90.1M. If another team offered White a 4-year deal starting at $20M with only 5% raises, the total contract value would be $86.2M - a difference of about $5M over four seasons.
Secondly, Coby is a true North Carolinian. He was born and raised in Goldsboro and is the all-time leading scorer in North Carolina high school basketball history.
He then opted to stay in the state when he chose to attend UNC for his college career. Since the Hornets acquired White, he has made it no secret how happy and excited he is to be back in his home state representing the team.
Lastly, the Hornets are on an upward trajectory as a club and are in a much better position going forward compared to the other three teams that could pose as threats to sign away White.
I see White as being an age and level of maturity where he values winning at the highest level, and he is set to be an important piece at Charlotte to help push for just that - playoff success.
The Hornets have plenty of bases covered here, including financial security, competing for the playoffs, and being settled in a location. With this in mind, I expect the Hornets to start off negotiations at around $16M annually and increase up to roughly that $20M mark, depending on other teams’ offers and circumstances.
As for the length of the contract, it will need to fit into Charlotte’s timeline. The Hornets could look at White’s deal as being congruent with when Kon Knueppel is scheduled to get his second contract-raise - meaning his contract should cover the next three years, with perhaps the final year being either a team or player option to further reinforce flexibility.
Now, let’s put this all together.
I predict Coby White will re-sign with the Charlotte Hornets on a 3-year deal worth between $52M and $65M - with the real number landing somewhere in between. I have a high degree of confidence he remains a Hornet next season.