Expectations were not very high for Duke’s football team heading into the 2026 season.
The Blue Devils are coming off a surprise ACC championship win in 2025, their first since 1989, but had nothing but negative headlines in the offseason.
Quarterback Darian Mensah entered the transfer portal at the 11th hour to go to Miami and took top receiver Cooper Barkate with him. Duke fought the move in court before eventually settling and having to turn elsewhere in the portal with very limited options.
At the start of the year, the Blue Devils were projected to finish 10th out of the conference’s 17 teams. Duke had one of the lowest percentages of returning contributors in the ACC, and many other teams made more notable additions.
However, four games in, Duke is looking a lot better than the 10th-best team in the ACC. In fact, the Blue Devils look like they can make a run to a second straight ACC championship appearance and are on the verge of an AP top-25 selection.
Here’s what they have to do to get there.
Keep leaning on their Heisman-level running back
Everyone knew sophomore running back Nate Sheppard was going to be a focal point of the Duke offense, but few expected his impact to be this profound.
Sheppard enters this week as the nation’s leader in rushing yards, running for 644 in Duke’s first four games. Against Tulane, he ran for 227. He had 147 against Illinois. He ran for 154 more in the win over Stanford, and last week against William and Mary, he had 116 yards on just nine carries.
His contributions haven’t stopped on the ground as he’s been a viable weapon in the pass game, catching 10 balls for 70 yards. He’s found the end zone nine total times this year.
“The level he’s playing at right now is as good as any running back that I’ve seen,” head coach Manny Diaz said during a recent appearance on the ACC Network. “The best stat about Nate is everyone knows to stop Duke, you’ve got to stop number 20, and he’s had 100 yards at halftime in [our first] three games.”
Nobody has been able to stop him, and Duke’s approach so far has been, if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.
The Blue Devils have relied heavily on his production to open up other aspects of their offense. While other teams are busy watching Sheppard, things start to open up downfield for new QB1 Walker Eget.
That makes Duke’s offense dangerous.
As the Blue Devils get deeper into ACC play, it will be important not to lose the identity they’ve established early. Sheppard proved last season what he can do against conference competition. You just have to be sure to keep him healthy.
Maintain their success on both sides of the ball
In Diaz’s first two seasons, one side of the ball has always been significantly weaker than the other.
In 2024, the Blue Devils had the ACC’s seventh-best defense, but sixth-worst offense. 2025 saw the team produce the conference’s highest-scoring offense, but the Blue Devils allowed the fourth-most points.
This season, the team is looking a lot more balanced. Duke enters this week in the ACC’s top-10 for both offense and defense. They’re getting production from both new and returning players, and against William and Mary, some of the young guys got to shine.
Receivers Kavon Simmons and Javion Solomon each caught a touchdown pass. Linebacker Bradley Gompers led the team in tackles, and future potential starting quarterback Dan Mahan got some run.
“Run the football on offense, limit big plays on defense and make people have to earn it,” Diaz said. “That’s gone back, stood the test of time on how to win a football game.”
Duke is outscoring teams 145-44 so far this year. 27 of those points came in one game against Illinois.
The Blue Devils look greatly improved on the defensive line, showing no problems generating pressure. The offensive line is holding strong and creating gaps in the run game. Even the special teams unit is setting Duke up with favorable position most times out.
The schedule will get tougher, and there are a few areas the team can improve on.
Duke will have to limit explosive plays and generate some of their own on offense. The team will also need to clean up its penalties. It could and has cost the program games in the past.
The Blue Devils should be favored in their next four outings against Georgia Tech, North Carolina, Virginia and Boston College.
If Duke can make it through that stretch with little to no damage, it could set up a very interesting meeting on Nov. 14 against No. 4 Miami and their former quarterback Darian Mensah.
Continue developing their vertical passing game
While Nate Sheppard is the center of Duke’s offense, the Blue Devils will need to continue working on their downfield passing attack to balance things out and avoid becoming one-dimensional.
Eget has looked a lot better since a rocky first outing against Tulane.
He was excellent in the narrow win over Illinois, going 15-of-21 for 206 yards and three touchdowns. However, he looked a little less efficient in the win over Stanford, completing 14-of-24 passes for 202 yards, one touchdown and an interception.
In the win over William and Mary, he looked closer to what he did in the Illinois game, connecting on 16-of-22 attempts for 182 yards and two touchdowns before being pulled to rest.
Even though the numbers have looked solid, the team has lacked any form of explosive plays in the pass game. Before William and Mary, it was mostly check-downs and dump-offs.
The Blue Devils finally broke through against the Tribe and had multiple successful passes deep downfield. Duke scored its first 20+-yard passing touchdown of the season, and then did it again four times after that.
Obviously, future opponents won’t be William and Mary, so time will tell whether Duke continues trending in the right direction.
It won’t all be on Eget. The receivers will also have to step up, and someone will need to separate themselves as a viable first option.
Jeremiah Hasley, Jonah Burton and Solomon have led the way so far.
“What we’ve been seeing in practice is now starting to show up on game day,” Diaz said. “ When those guys would get confidence, look out because we really think we’ve got some talented young receivers.”
Avoid the same mistakes that burned them before
Duke is currently experiencing one of its most successful four-year stretches in program history. It is by far the best stretch in the team’s modern era, but one can’t help but feel they could’ve achieved more.
Despite winning the ACC last season, Duke was left out of the 12-team College Football Playoff field because of its 8-5 overall record.
The Blue Devils’ non-conference losses to Tulane, UConn and Illinois, plus its two ACC losses to Georgia Tech and Virginia, were too much for the committee to overlook. Three of those games were winnable, and perhaps winning just one of them would’ve put the team in the playoff.
Even in prior seasons, Duke has lost crucial games that kept it out of ACC title contention. Last-second scores, game-changing penalties and careless losses have followed the team from the Elko era.
Duke took advantage of the ACC tie-breaker system last season, but those rules are gone. This year, the team will need to avoid the midseason bump that previously knocked it off the path to contention.
That means winning the games you’re supposed to, and stealing one or two you aren’t.