Draft Lottery Takeaways: Charlotte Hornets Edition
The lottery balls didn't fall in favor of the Hornets on Sunday afternoon.
The NBA Draft Lottery took place on Sunday, and while the Charlotte Hornets did not move up the order, it was an expected result.
Going into the drawing, there was a 97.6% chance the Hornets would be the first team drawn, landing them at the 14th overall pick. I can’t exactly call that unlucky, particularly when the Hornets have been awarded three top-4 picks since 2020.
What I will say, though, is the conversation around pick No. 14 is much more wide open than the conversation around picks 1-4. In fact, there’s practically zero consensus around what the Hornets will do with their first round picks.
Here’s the full NBA Draft top-14 order:
Washington Wizards
Utah Jazz
Memphis Grizzlies
Chicago Bulls
Los Angeles Clippers
Brooklyn Nets
Sacramento Kings
Atlanta Hawks
Dallas Mavericks
Milwaukee Bucks
Golden State Warriors
Oklahoma City Thunder
Miami Heat
Charlotte Hornets
I have (many) thoughts. Here are my full lottery takeaways.
There are two fan favorite picks for the Hornets this year - Michigan’s Yaxel Lendeborg and Aday Mara. I don’t think either of them make it to pick No. 14.
The nature of this draft class is that once the top-4 players are off the board (AJ Dybantsa, Cam Boozer, Darryn Peterson, and Caleb Wilson), it’s a big cluster of guards in the top-10. But after that? Aday Mara projects to be the first center taken, and most mock drafts have Yaxel Lendeborg as the first power forward taken after the top-4.
The nature of the draft typically sees guards fall, and bigger players taken earlier. After all, players who are of Lendeborg and Mara’s archetype are much more hard to come by.
Think of it this way. Do you think that every five teams between picks No. 5 and No. 10 are going to take guards? I would say it’s unlikely.
I think the draft range for each of Lendeborg and Mara starts at pick No. 5 with the Los Angeles Clippers - who are set at point guard and just traded away Ivica Zubac at the trade deadline.
I think Mara is likely to go prior to Lendeborg, but I do think the odds that either is available to Charlotte at 14 is about 30%. The Hornets probably serve as the “floor” for both players.
The odds the Hornets trade up are fleeting.
It’s rare that you see teams trade into the top-10 in the NBA Draft, not because of a lack of interest in moving up, but more from a lack of teams willing to trade down. That’s not to say it’s impossible, but it certainly isn’t likely.
Factor in that the worst-10 teams in the NBA this year were significantly worse than the rest of the league, and it’s harder to see a trade-up scenario happening:
The Bucks didn’t risk their already-sour relationship with Giannis Antetokounmpo to trade down from the 10th overall pick. The Dallas Mavericks probably aren’t going to trade out of the best chance they have to put a playmaker next to Cooper Flagg. From there, the price only increases.
Since 2021, there has been a single trade draft-night trade where a team moved from outside the top-10 to within it: The Minnesota Timberwolves trading up for Rob Dillingham - and that was notably in the weakest top-10 we’ve seen in at least a decade.
A trade up was already fairly unlikely, but Sunday’s lottery pretty much confirms the unlikely nature of such a move.
So… who’s the favorite to be the (one of the) pick(s) then?
I don’t know! There’s a lot of variety in the names being linked to the Charlotte Hornets in mock drafts right now. There’s a lot of Hannes Steinbach, Karim Lopez, Cam Carr mentions, but I’ll say that my personal favorite for Charlotte right now is Nate Ament.
Ament brings a rare combination of dribbling and shooting that is hard to find in a 6-10 frame. I have my worries about his (lack of) physicality and weight, and many will point out that Ament shot sub-40% from the field at Tennessee this past season.
My argument for Ament is twofold:
I think scaling back Ament’s role to one in which he’d have looks/advantages created for him by LaMelo Ball and Coby White plays favorably to his long-term development (while being able to contribute from day one).
Nate Ament had a 13-game stretch averaging 22/7/2 on 43/39/84 shooting splits prior to an injury that saw him miss about half a month’s worth of games. He clearly was not 100% during the remainder of the season, and I’m willing to bet on that 13-game stretch where Ament was really putting it together.
Charlotte got a favorable outcome with the way the top-4 picks shook out.
The Hornets avoided all of the “nightmare scenarios” in this year’s NBA Draft Lottery. Neither the Heat nor the Mavericks [the Hornets own both of their 2027 picks] jumped in the draft order (in fact, the Mavericks went down one spot), and all four of the top picks went to deservedly bad teams, including the Chicago Bulls.
The competition level will be much more stiff in the NBA next season due to the new lottery system and draft class that less teams will be willing to tank for, so having two Eastern Conference teams in the top-4 that aren’t likely to be competing for playoff spots is a win, even if it looks as though AJ Dybantsa will be joining the Southeast Division.